% IMPORTANT: The following is UTF-8 encoded.  This means that in the presence
% of non-ASCII characters, it will not work with BibTeX 0.99 or older.
% Instead, you should use an up-to-date BibTeX implementation like “bibtex8” or
% “biber”.

@ARTICLE{Chen:141865,
      author       = {C. Chen$^*$ and C. Stock$^*$ and M. Hoffmeister$^*$ and H.
                      Brenner$^*$},
      title        = {{H}ow long does it take until the effects of endoscopic
                      screening on colorectal cancer mortality are fully
                      disclosed?: a {M}arkov model study.},
      journal      = {International journal of cancer},
      volume       = {143},
      number       = {11},
      issn         = {0020-7136},
      address      = {Bognor Regis},
      publisher    = {Wiley-Liss},
      reportid     = {DKFZ-2018-02122},
      pages        = {2718 - 2724},
      year         = {2018},
      abstract     = {A recent randomized trial has suggested persisting
                      protection from colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and
                      mortality of a single flexible sigmoidoscopy for up to 17
                      years and possibly beyond. We performed a simulation study
                      to explore the time course and magnitude of protection
                      provided by screening colonoscopy against CRC death over 25
                      years. Using data from the German national screening
                      colonoscopy registry, a multistate Markov model was set up
                      based on the adenoma-carcinoma pathway to estimate
                      cumulative CRC mortality when different proportions of the
                      population have a single screening colonoscopy at age 55, or
                      two screening colonoscopies at ages 55 and 65. Cumulative
                      CRC mortality continuously increased with age and reached
                      2.6 and $1.7\%$ at age 80 in the absence of screening for
                      men and women, respectively. A single colonoscopy at age 55,
                      even with limited uptake, would lead to much lower
                      cumulative mortality $(0.7\%$ for men and $0.5\%$ for women
                      at age 80 under $100\%$ uptake). Relative mortality
                      reduction continued to increase over more than 10 years and
                      reached the maximum around 12-13 years after screening.
                      Absolute risk reduction steadily increased throughout
                      follow-up and more than half of the total risk reduction
                      would occur between 15-25 years. A repeat colonoscopy 10
                      years later further enhanced the effects and cumulative
                      mortality remained at $0.1-0.2\%$ under $100\%$ uptake. Even
                      a single (once-only) screening colonoscopy has the potential
                      to prevent most of CRC mortalities. Protective effects are
                      expected to be long-lasting and to become fully manifest
                      after more than two decades from screening.},
      cin          = {C070 / G110},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-He78)C070-20160331 / I:(DE-He78)G110-20160331},
      pnm          = {313 - Cancer risk factors and prevention (POF3-313)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-313},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:29978478},
      doi          = {10.1002/ijc.31716},
      url          = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/141865},
}