TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kaptoge, Stephen
AU  - Pennells, Lisa
AU  - De Bacquer, Dirk
AU  - Cooney, Marie Therese
AU  - Kavousi, Maryam
AU  - Stevens, Gretchen
AU  - Riley, Leanne Margaret
AU  - Savin, Stefan
AU  - Khan, Taskeen
AU  - Altay, Servet
AU  - Amouyel, Philippe
AU  - Assmann, Gerd
AU  - Bell, Steven
AU  - Ben-Shlomo, Yoav
AU  - Berkman, Lisa
AU  - Beulens, Joline W
AU  - Björkelund, Cecilia
AU  - Blaha, Michael
AU  - Blazer, Dan G
AU  - Bolton, Thomas
AU  - Bonita Beaglehole, Ruth
AU  - Brenner, Hermann
AU  - Brunner, Eric J
AU  - Casiglia, Edoardo
AU  - Chamnan, Parinya
AU  - Choi, Yeun-Hyang
AU  - Chowdry, Rajiv
AU  - Coady, Sean
AU  - Crespo, Carlos J
AU  - Cushman, Mary
AU  - Dagenais, Gilles R
AU  - D'Agostino, Ralph B
AU  - Daimon, Makoto
AU  - Davidson, Karina W
AU  - Engström, Gunnar
AU  - Ford, Ian
AU  - Gallacher, John
AU  - Gansevoort, Ron T
AU  - Gaziano, Thomas Andrew
AU  - Giampaoli, Simona
AU  - Grandits, Greg
AU  - Grimsgaard, Sameline
AU  - Grobbee, Diederick E
AU  - Gudnason, Vilmundur
AU  - Guo, Qi
AU  - Tolonen, Hanna
AU  - Humphries, Steve
AU  - Iso, Hiroyasu
AU  - Jukema, J Wouter
AU  - Kauhanen, Jussi
AU  - Kengne, Andre Pascal
AU  - Khalili, Davood
AU  - Koenig, Wolfgang
AU  - Kromhout, Daan
AU  - Krumholz, Harlan
AU  - Lam, T. H.
AU  - Laughlin, Gail
AU  - Marín Ibañez, Alejandro
AU  - Meade, Tom W
AU  - Moons, Karel G M
AU  - Nietert, Paul J
AU  - Ninomiya, Toshiharu
AU  - Nordestgaard, Børge G
AU  - O'Donnell, Christopher
AU  - Palmieri, Luigi
AU  - Patel, Anushka
AU  - Perel, Pablo
AU  - Price, Jackie F
AU  - Providencia, Rui
AU  - Ridker, Paul M
AU  - Rodriguez, Beatriz
AU  - Rosengren, Annika
AU  - Roussel, Ronan
AU  - Sakurai, Masaru
AU  - Salomaa, Veikko
AU  - Sato, Shinichi
AU  - Schöttker, Ben
AU  - Shara, Nawar
AU  - Shaw, Jonathan E
AU  - Shin, Hee-Choon
AU  - Simons, Leon A
AU  - Sofianopoulou, Eleni
AU  - Sundström, Johan
AU  - Völzke, Henry
AU  - Wallace, Robert B
AU  - Wareham, Nicholas J
AU  - Willeit, Peter
AU  - Wood, David
AU  - Wood, Angela
AU  - Zhao, Dong
AU  - Woodward, Mark
AU  - Danaei, Goodarz
AU  - Roth, Gregory
AU  - Mendis, Shanthi
AU  - Onuma, Oyere
AU  - Varghese, Cherian
AU  - Ezzati, Majid
AU  - Graham, Ian
AU  - Jackson, Rod
AU  - Danesh, John
AU  - Di Angelantonio, Emanuele
TI  - World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions.
JO  - The lancet  / Global health Global health [...]
VL  - 7
IS  - 10
SN  - 2214-109X
CY  - Oxford
PB  - Elsevier
M1  - DKFZ-2019-02329
SP  - e1332 - e1345
PY  - 2019
AB  - To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
C6  - pmid:31488387
DO  - DOI:10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30318-3
UR  - https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/147203
ER  -