% IMPORTANT: The following is UTF-8 encoded.  This means that in the presence
% of non-ASCII characters, it will not work with BibTeX 0.99 or older.
% Instead, you should use an up-to-date BibTeX implementation like “bibtex8” or
% “biber”.

@ARTICLE{Group:147203,
      author       = {S. Kaptoge and L. Pennells and D. De Bacquer and M. T.
                      Cooney and M. Kavousi and G. Stevens and L. M. Riley and S.
                      Savin and T. Khan and S. Altay and P. Amouyel and G. Assmann
                      and S. Bell and Y. Ben-Shlomo and L. Berkman and J. W.
                      Beulens and C. Björkelund and M. Blaha and D. G. Blazer and
                      T. Bolton and R. Bonita Beaglehole and H. Brenner$^*$ and E.
                      J. Brunner and E. Casiglia and P. Chamnan and Y.-H. Choi and
                      R. Chowdry and S. Coady and C. J. Crespo and M. Cushman and
                      G. R. Dagenais and R. B. D'Agostino and M. Daimon and K. W.
                      Davidson and G. Engström and I. Ford and J. Gallacher and
                      R. T. Gansevoort and T. A. Gaziano and S. Giampaoli and G.
                      Grandits and S. Grimsgaard and D. E. Grobbee and V. Gudnason
                      and Q. Guo and H. Tolonen and S. Humphries and H. Iso and J.
                      W. Jukema and J. Kauhanen and A. P. Kengne and D. Khalili
                      and W. Koenig and D. Kromhout and H. Krumholz and T. H. Lam
                      and G. Laughlin and A. Marín Ibañez and T. W. Meade and K.
                      G. M. Moons and P. J. Nietert and T. Ninomiya and B. G.
                      Nordestgaard and C. O'Donnell and L. Palmieri and A. Patel
                      and P. Perel and J. F. Price and R. Providencia and P. M.
                      Ridker and B. Rodriguez and A. Rosengren and R. Roussel and
                      M. Sakurai and V. Salomaa and S. Sato and B. Schöttker$^*$
                      and N. Shara and J. E. Shaw and H.-C. Shin and L. A. Simons
                      and E. Sofianopoulou and J. Sundström and H. Völzke and R.
                      B. Wallace and N. J. Wareham and P. Willeit and D. Wood and
                      A. Wood and D. Zhao and M. Woodward and G. Danaei and G.
                      Roth and S. Mendis and O. Onuma and C. Varghese and M.
                      Ezzati and I. Graham and R. Jackson and J. Danesh and E. Di
                      Angelantonio},
      collaboration = {W. C. R. C. W. Group},
      title        = {{W}orld {H}ealth {O}rganization cardiovascular disease risk
                      charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global
                      regions.},
      journal      = {The lancet / Global health Global health [...]},
      volume       = {7},
      number       = {10},
      issn         = {2214-109X},
      address      = {Oxford},
      publisher    = {Elsevier},
      reportid     = {DKFZ-2019-02329},
      pages        = {e1332 - e1345},
      year         = {2019},
      abstract     = {To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction
                      approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO
                      has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate
                      revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation,
                      validation, and illustration of the revised WHO
                      cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been
                      adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.In this
                      model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk
                      prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular
                      disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using
                      individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors
                      Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking
                      status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and
                      total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants
                      aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of
                      cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first
                      myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or
                      stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and
                      sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available
                      from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed
                      individual participant data from studies distinct from those
                      used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing
                      data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79
                      countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to
                      Surveillance.Our risk model derivation involved 376 177
                      individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident
                      cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up.
                      The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in
                      external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061
                      individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with
                      Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 $(95\%$ CI
                      0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk
                      factor profile, we found substantial variation across global
                      regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For
                      example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a
                      60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic
                      blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5
                      mmol/L ranged from $11\%$ in Andean Latin America to $30\%$
                      in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries
                      (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the
                      proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be
                      at greater than $20\%$ risk ranged from less than $1\%$ in
                      Uganda to more than $16\%$ in Egypt.We have derived,
                      calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to
                      estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of
                      Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could
                      enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of
                      efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease
                      worldwide.World Health Organization, British Heart
                      Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research
                      Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National
                      Institute for Health Research.},
      cin          = {C070 / C120},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-He78)C070-20160331 / I:(DE-He78)C120-20160331},
      pnm          = {323 - Metabolic Dysfunction as Risk Factor (POF3-323)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-323},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:31488387},
      doi          = {10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30318-3},
      url          = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/147203},
}