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@ARTICLE{Nelson:147513,
      author       = {R. G. Nelson and M. E. Grams and S. H. Ballew and Y. Sang
                      and F. Azizi and S. J. Chadban and L. Chaker and S. C.
                      Dunning and C. Fox and Y. Hirakawa and K. Iseki and J. Ix
                      and T. H. Jafar and A. Köttgen and D. M. J. Naimark and T.
                      Ohkubo and G. J. Prescott and C. M. Rebholz and C.
                      Sabanayagam and T. Sairenchi and B. Schöttker$^*$ and Y.
                      Shibagaki and M. Tonelli and L. Zhang and R. T. Gansevoort
                      and K. Matsushita and M. Woodward and J. Coresh and V.
                      Shalev},
      collaboration = {C. P. Consortium},
      title        = {{D}evelopment of {R}isk {P}rediction {E}quations for
                      {I}ncident {C}hronic {K}idney {D}isease.},
      journal      = {The journal of the American Medical Association},
      volume       = {322},
      number       = {21},
      issn         = {0098-7484},
      address      = {Chicago, Ill.},
      publisher    = {American Medical Association},
      reportid     = {DKFZ-2019-02567},
      pages        = {2104-2114},
      year         = {2019},
      note         = {JAMA. 2019;322(21):2104-2114},
      abstract     = {Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of
                      developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) could improve
                      clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better
                      management of underlying health conditions.To develop
                      assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk
                      of CKD, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration
                      rate (eGFR).Individual-level data analysis of 34
                      multinational cohorts from the CKD Prognosis Consortium
                      including 5 222 711 individuals from 28 countries. Data
                      were collected from April 1970 through January 2017. A
                      2-stage analysis was performed, with each study first
                      analyzed individually and summarized overall using a
                      weighted average. Because clinical variables were often
                      differentially available by diabetes status, models were
                      developed separately for participants with diabetes and
                      without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also
                      tested in 9 external cohorts
                      (n = 2 253 540).Demographic and clinical
                      factors.Incident eGFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2.Among
                      4 441 084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54
                      years, $38\%$ women), 660 856 incident cases $(14.9\%)$ of
                      reduced eGFR occurred during a mean follow-up of 4.2 years.
                      Of 781 627 participants with diabetes (mean age, 62 years,
                      $13\%$ women), 313 646 incident cases $(40\%)$ occurred
                      during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Equations for the
                      5-year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex,
                      race/ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease,
                      ever smoker, hypertension, body mass index, and albuminuria
                      concentration. For participants with diabetes, the models
                      also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the
                      interaction between the 2. The risk equations had a median C
                      statistic for the 5-year predicted probability of 0.845
                      (interquartile range [IQR], 0.789-0.890) in the cohorts
                      without diabetes and 0.801 (IQR, 0.750-0.819) in the cohorts
                      with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 of 13
                      study populations $(69\%)$ had a slope of observed to
                      predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was
                      similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation
                      cohorts; calibration showed that 16 of 18 $(89\%)$ had a
                      slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and
                      1.25.Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic
                      kidney disease developed from more than 5 million
                      individuals from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high
                      discrimination and variable calibration in diverse
                      populations. Further study is needed to determine whether
                      use of these equations to identify individuals at risk of
                      developing chronic kidney disease will improve clinical care
                      and patient outcomes.},
      cin          = {C070},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-He78)C070-20160331},
      pnm          = {313 - Cancer risk factors and prevention (POF3-313)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-313},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:31703124},
      doi          = {10.1001/jama.2019.17379},
      url          = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/147513},
}