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@ARTICLE{Hsing:154432,
      author       = {A. Hüsing$^*$ and A. S. Quante and J. Chang-Claude$^*$ and
                      K. Aleksandrova and R. Kaaks$^*$ and R. M. Pfeiffer},
      title        = {{V}alidation of two {US} breast cancer risk prediction
                      models in {G}erman women.},
      journal      = {Cancer causes $\&$ control},
      volume       = {31},
      number       = {6},
      issn         = {1573-7225},
      address      = {Dordrecht [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Springer Science + Business Media B.V.},
      reportid     = {DKFZ-2020-00760},
      pages        = {525-536},
      year         = {2020},
      note         = {2020 Jun;31(6):525-536#EA:C020#},
      abstract     = {There are no models for German women that predict absolute
                      risk of invasive breast cancer (BC), i.e., the probability
                      of developing BC over a prespecified time period, given a
                      woman's age and characteristics, while accounting for
                      competing risks. We thus validated two absolute BC risk
                      models (BCRAT, BCRmod) developed for US women in German
                      women. BCRAT uses a woman's medical, reproductive, and BC
                      family history; BCRmod adds modifiable risk factors (body
                      mass index, hormone replacement therapy and alcohol use).We
                      assessed model calibration by comparing observed BC numbers
                      (O) to expected numbers (E) computed from BCRmod/BCRAT for
                      German women enrolled in the prospective European
                      Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC),
                      and after updating the models with German BC
                      incidence/competing mortality rates. We also compared 1-year
                      BC risk predicted for all German women using the German
                      Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS)
                      with overall German BC incidence. Discriminatory performance
                      was quantified by the area under the receiver operator
                      characteristics curve (AUC).Among 22,098 EPIC-Germany women
                      aged 40+ years, 745 BCs occurred (median follow-up:
                      11.9 years). Both models had good calibration for total
                      follow-up, EBCRmod/O = 1.08 $(95\%$ confidence interval:
                      0.95-1.21), and EBCRAT/O = 0.99(0.87-1.11), and over 5
                      years. Compared to German BC incidence rates, both models
                      somewhat overestimated 1-year risk for women aged 55+ and
                      70+ years. For total follow-up,
                      AUCBCRmod = 0.61(0.58-0.63) and
                      AUCBCRAT = 0.58(0.56-0.61), with similar values for
                      5-year follow-up.US BC risk models showed adequate
                      calibration in German women. Discriminatory performance was
                      comparable to that in US women. These models thus could be
                      applied for risk prediction in German women.},
      cin          = {C020},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-He78)C020-20160331},
      pnm          = {313 - Cancer risk factors and prevention (POF3-313)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-313},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:32253639},
      doi          = {10.1007/s10552-020-01272-6},
      url          = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/154432},
}