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@ARTICLE{Heisser:157163,
author = {T. Heisser$^*$ and K. Weigl$^*$ and M. Hoffmeister$^*$ and
H. Brenner$^*$},
title = {{A}ge-specific sequence of colorectal cancer screening
options in {G}ermany: {A} model-based critical evaluation.},
journal = {PLoS medicine},
volume = {17},
number = {7},
issn = {1549-1676},
address = {Lawrence, Kan.},
publisher = {PLoS},
reportid = {DKFZ-2020-01443},
pages = {e1003194 -},
year = {2020},
note = {#EA:C070#LA:C070#},
abstract = {The current organized screening program for colorectal
cancer in Germany offers both sexes 5 annual fecal
immunochemical tests (FITs) between ages 50 and 54 years,
followed by a first screening colonoscopy at age 55 years if
all of these FITs were negative. We sought to assess the
implications of this approach for key parameters of
diagnostic performance.Using a multistate Markov model, we
estimated the expected detection rates of advanced neoplasms
(advanced adenomas and cancers) and number needed to scope
(NNS) to detect 1 advanced neoplasm at a first screening
colonoscopy conducted at age 55 after 5 preceding negative
FITs and compared them with the corresponding estimates for
a first screening colonoscopy at age 55 with no preceding
FIT testing. In individuals with 5 consecutive negative FITs
undergoing screening colonoscopy at age 55, expected
colonoscopy detection rate (NNS) was $3.7\%$ (27) and
$0.10\%$ (1,021) for any advanced neoplasm and cancer,
respectively, in men, and $2.1\%$ (47) and $0.05\%$ (1,880)
for any advanced neoplasm and cancer, respectively, in
women. These NNS values for detecting 1 advanced neoplasm
are approximately 3-fold higher, and the NNS values for
detecting 1 cancer are approximately 8-fold higher, than
those for a first screening colonoscopy at age 55 without
prior FITs. This study is limited by model simplifying
assumptions and uncertainties related to input
parameters.Screening colonoscopy at age 55 after 5
consecutive negative FITs at ages 50-54, as currently
offered in the German cancer early detection program, is
expected to have very low positive predictive value. Our
results may inform efforts to enhance the design of
screening programs.},
cin = {C070 / HD01 / C120},
ddc = {610},
cid = {I:(DE-He78)C070-20160331 / I:(DE-He78)HD01-20160331 /
I:(DE-He78)C120-20160331},
pnm = {313 - Cancer risk factors and prevention (POF3-313)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-313},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
pubmed = {pmid:32678831},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1003194},
url = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/157163},
}