TY - JOUR AU - Wahl, Niklas AU - Hennig, Philipp AU - Wieser, Hans-Peter AU - Bangert, Mark TI - Analytical probabilistic modeling of dose-volume histograms. JO - Medical physics VL - 47 IS - 10 SN - 2473-4209 CY - College Park, Md. PB - AAPM M1 - DKFZ-2020-01567 SP - 5260-5273 PY - 2020 N1 - #EA:E040#LA:E040#2020 Oct;47(10):5260-5273 AB - Radiotherapy, especially with charged particles, is sensitive to executional and preparational uncertainties that propagate to uncertainty in dose and plan quality indicators, e. g., dose-volume histograms (DVHs). Current approaches to quantify and mitigate such uncertainties rely on explicitly computed error scenarios and are thus subject to statistical uncertainty and limitations regarding the underlying uncertainty model. Here we present an alternative, analytical method to approximate moments, in particular expectation value and (co)variance, of the probability distribution of DVH-points, and evaluate its accuracy on patient data.We use Analytical Probabilistic Modeling (APM) to derive moments of the probability distribution over individual DVH-points based on the probability distribution over dose. By using the computed moments to parameterize distinct probability distributions over DVH-points (here normal or beta distributions), not only the moments but also percentiles, i. e., α-DVHs, are computed. The model is subsequently evaluated on three patient cases (intracranial, paraspinal, prostate) in 30- and singlefraction scenarios by assuming the dose to follow a multivariate normal distribution, whose moments are computed in closed-form with APM. The results are compared to a benchmark based on discrete random sampling.The evaluation of the new probabilistic model on the three patient cases against a sampling benchmark proves its correctness under perfect assumptions as well as good agreement in realistic conditions. More precisely, ca. 90 LB - PUB:(DE-HGF)16 C6 - pmid:32740930 DO - DOI:10.1002/mp.14414 UR - https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/157338 ER -