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000163207 1001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)5b69eb65801a144c299d2aee312aefa8$$aGonzalez Maldonado, Sandra$$b0$$eFirst author$$udkfz
000163207 245__ $$aOverdiagnosis in lung cancer screening - estimates from the German Lung Cancer Screening Intervention Trial.
000163207 260__ $$aBognor Regis$$bWiley-Liss$$c2021
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000163207 520__ $$aOverdiagnosis is a major potential harm of lung cancer screening; knowing its potential magnitude helps to optimize screening eligibility criteria. The German Lung Screening Intervention Trial ('LUSI') is a randomized trial among 4052 long-term smokers (2622 men), 50.3-71.9 years of age from the general population around Heidelberg, Germany, comparing five annual rounds of low-dose computed tomography (n=2029) with a control arm without intervention (n=2023). After a median follow-up of 9.77 years post-randomization and 5.73 years since last screening, 74 participants were diagnosed with lung cancer in the control arm and 90 in the screening arm: 69 during the active screening period; of which 63 screen-detected and 6 interval cancers. The excess cumulative incidence in the screening arm (N=16) represented 25.4% [95%CI -11.3, 64.3] of screen-detected cancer cases (N=63). Analyzed by histologic subtype, excess incidence in the screening arm appeared largely driven by adenocarcinomas. Statistical modeling yielded an estimated mean pre-clinical sojourn time (MPST) of 5.38 [4.76, 5.88] years and a screen-test sensitivity of 81.6 [74.4%, 88.8%] for lung cancer overall, all histologic subtypes combined. Based on modeling, we further estimated that about 48% (47.5% [43.2%, 50.7%]) of screen-detected tumors have a lead time ≥4 years, whereas about 33% (32.8% [28.4%, 36.1%]) have a lead time ≥6 years, 23% (22,6% [18,6%, 25,7%]) ≥8 years, 16% (15.6% [12,2%, 18,3%]) ≥10 years and 11% (10,7% [8,0%, 13,0%]) ≥12 years. The high proportions of tumors with relatively long lead times suggests a major risk of overdiagnosis for individuals with comparatively short remaining life expectancies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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000163207 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)8597d05ee46a87bec084908e653c08ef$$aTrotter, Anke$$b2$$udkfz
000163207 7001_ $$aKauczor, Hans-Ulrich$$b3
000163207 7001_ $$aHeussel, Claus-Peter$$b4
000163207 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)a8ce1da94e91296e574e4849cfabd230$$aHermann, Silke$$b5$$udkfz
000163207 7001_ $$aZeissig, Sylke Ruth$$b6
000163207 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)3e76653311420a51a5faeb80363bd73e$$aDelorme, Stefan$$b7$$udkfz
000163207 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)4b2dc91c9d1ac33a1c0e0777d0c1697a$$aKaaks, Rudolf$$b8$$eLast author$$udkfz
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