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@ARTICLE{Krilaviciute:167631,
      author       = {A. Krilaviciute$^*$ and H. Brenner$^*$},
      title        = {{L}ow positive predictive value of computed tomography
                      screening for lung cancer irrespective of commonly employed
                      definitions of target population.},
      journal      = {International journal of cancer},
      volume       = {149},
      number       = {1},
      issn         = {1097-0215},
      address      = {Bognor Regis},
      publisher    = {Wiley-Liss},
      reportid     = {DKFZ-2021-00465},
      pages        = {58-65},
      year         = {2021},
      note         = {#EA:C070#LA:C070# / 149(1):58-65},
      abstract     = {Screening for lung cancer (LC) by low-dose computed
                      tomography (LDCT) has been demonstrated to reduce LC
                      mortality in randomized clinical trials (RCTs), and its
                      implementation is in preparation in many countries. However,
                      definition of the target population, which was based on
                      various combinations of age ranges and definitions of heavy
                      smoking in the RCTs, is subject to ongoing debate. Using
                      epidemiological data from Germany, we aimed to estimate
                      prevalence of preclinical LC and positive predictive value
                      (PPV) of LDCT in potential target populations defined by age
                      and smoking history. Populations aged 50-69, 55-69, 50-74
                      and 55-79 years were considered in this analysis.
                      Sex-specific prevalence of preclinical LC was estimated
                      using LC incidence data within those age ranges and annual
                      transition rates from preclinical to clinical LC obtained by
                      meta-analysis. Prevalence of preclinical LC among heavy
                      smokers (defined by various pack-year thresholds) within
                      those age ranges was estimated by combining LC prevalence in
                      the general population with proportions of heavy smokers and
                      relative risks for LC among them derived from
                      epidemiological studies. PPVs were calculated by combining
                      these prevalences with sensitivity and specificity estimates
                      of LDCT. Estimated prevalence of LC was $0.3-0.5\%$ (men)
                      and $0.2-0.3\%$ (women) in the general population and
                      $0.8-1.7\%$ in target populations of heavy smokers.
                      Estimates of PPV of LDCT were $<20\%$ for all definitions of
                      target populations of heavy smokers. Refined preselection of
                      target populations would be highly desirable to increase PPV
                      and efficiency of LDCT screening and to reduce numbers of
                      false positive LDCT findings.},
      keywords     = {lung cancer (Other) / pack-years (Other) / preclinical
                      cancer (Other) / predictive value (Other) / screening
                      (Other)},
      cin          = {C070 / C120 / HD01},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-He78)C070-20160331 / I:(DE-He78)C120-20160331 /
                      I:(DE-He78)HD01-20160331},
      pnm          = {313 - Krebsrisikofaktoren und Prävention (POF4-313)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-313},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:33634860},
      doi          = {10.1002/ijc.33522},
      url          = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/167631},
}