%0 Journal Article
%A Hurson, Amber N
%A Pal Choudhury, Parichoy
%A Gao, Chi
%A Hüsing, Anika
%A Eriksson, Mikael
%A Shi, Min
%A Jones, Michael E
%A Evans, D Gareth R
%A Milne, Roger L
%A Gaudet, Mia M
%A Vachon, Celine M
%A Chasman, Daniel I
%A Easton, Douglas F
%A Schmidt, Marjanka K
%A Kraft, Peter
%A Garcia-Closas, Montserrat
%A Chatterjee, Nilanjan
%T Prospective evaluation of a breast-cancer risk model integrating classical risk factors and polygenic risk in 15 cohorts from six countries.
%J International journal of epidemiology
%V 50
%N 6
%@ 1464-3685
%C Oxford
%I Oxford Univ. Press
%M DKFZ-2021-00697
%P 1897–1911
%D 2021
%Z Volume 50, Issue 6, December 2021, Pages 1897–1911
%X Rigorous evaluation of the calibration and discrimination of breast-cancer risk-prediction models in prospective cohorts is critical for applications under clinical guidelines. We comprehensively evaluated an integrated model incorporating classical risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) to predict breast-cancer risk.Fifteen prospective cohorts from six countries with 239 340 women (7646 incident breast-cancer cases) of European ancestry aged 19-75 years were included. Calibration of 5-year risk was assessed by comparing expected and observed proportions of cases overall and within risk categories. Risk stratification for women of European ancestry aged 50-70 years in those countries was evaluated by the proportion of women and future cases crossing clinically relevant risk thresholds.Among women <50 years old, the median (range) expected-to-observed ratio for the integrated model across 15 cohorts was 0.9 (0.7-1.0) overall and 0.9 (0.7-1.4) at the highest-risk decile; among women ≥50 years old, these were 1.0 (0.7-1.3) and 1.2 (0.7-1.6), respectively. The proportion of women identified above a 3
%K Breast cancer (Other)
%K iCARE (Other)
%K model validation (Other)
%K polygenic risk score (Other)
%K risk prediction (Other)
%K risk stratification (Other)
%F PUB:(DE-HGF)16
%9 Journal Article
%$ pmid:33755131
%R 10.1093/ije/dyab036
%U https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/168129