TY  - JOUR
AU  - Hurson, Amber N
AU  - Pal Choudhury, Parichoy
AU  - Gao, Chi
AU  - Hüsing, Anika
AU  - Eriksson, Mikael
AU  - Shi, Min
AU  - Jones, Michael E
AU  - Evans, D Gareth R
AU  - Milne, Roger L
AU  - Gaudet, Mia M
AU  - Vachon, Celine M
AU  - Chasman, Daniel I
AU  - Easton, Douglas F
AU  - Schmidt, Marjanka K
AU  - Kraft, Peter
AU  - Garcia-Closas, Montserrat
AU  - Chatterjee, Nilanjan
TI  - Prospective evaluation of a breast-cancer risk model integrating classical risk factors and polygenic risk in 15 cohorts from six countries.
JO  - International journal of epidemiology
VL  - 50
IS  - 6
SN  - 1464-3685
CY  - Oxford
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
M1  - DKFZ-2021-00697
SP  - 1897–1911
PY  - 2021
N1  - Volume 50, Issue 6, December 2021, Pages 1897–1911
AB  - Rigorous evaluation of the calibration and discrimination of breast-cancer risk-prediction models in prospective cohorts is critical for applications under clinical guidelines. We comprehensively evaluated an integrated model incorporating classical risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) to predict breast-cancer risk.Fifteen prospective cohorts from six countries with 239 340 women (7646 incident breast-cancer cases) of European ancestry aged 19-75 years were included. Calibration of 5-year risk was assessed by comparing expected and observed proportions of cases overall and within risk categories. Risk stratification for women of European ancestry aged 50-70 years in those countries was evaluated by the proportion of women and future cases crossing clinically relevant risk thresholds.Among women <50 years old, the median (range) expected-to-observed ratio for the integrated model across 15 cohorts was 0.9 (0.7-1.0) overall and 0.9 (0.7-1.4) at the highest-risk decile; among women ≥50 years old, these were 1.0 (0.7-1.3) and 1.2 (0.7-1.6), respectively. The proportion of women identified above a 3
KW  - Breast cancer (Other)
KW  - iCARE (Other)
KW  - model validation (Other)
KW  - polygenic risk score (Other)
KW  - risk prediction (Other)
KW  - risk stratification (Other)
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
C6  - pmid:33755131
DO  - DOI:10.1093/ije/dyab036
UR  - https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/168129
ER  -