TY  - JOUR
AU  - group, SCORE2 working
AU  - Hageman, Steven
AU  - Pennells, Lisa
AU  - Ojeda, Francisco
AU  - Kaptoge, Stephen
AU  - Kuulasmaa, Kari
AU  - de Vries, Tamar
AU  - Xu, Zhe
AU  - Kee, Frank
AU  - Chung, Ryan
AU  - Wood, Angela
AU  - McEvoy, John William
AU  - Veronesi, Giovanni
AU  - Bolton, Thomas
AU  - Dendale, Paul
AU  - Ference, Brian A
AU  - Halle, Martin
AU  - Timmis, Adam
AU  - Vardas, Panos
AU  - Danesh, John
AU  - Graham, Ian
AU  - Salomaa, Veikko
AU  - Visseren, Frank
AU  - De Bacquer, Dirk
AU  - Blankenberg, Stefan
AU  - Dorresteijn, Jannick
AU  - Di Angelantonio, Emanuele
AU  - Kaaks, Rudolf
AU  - Katzke, Verena
TI  - SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe.
JO  - European heart journal
VL  - 42
IS  - 25
SN  - 1522-9645
CY  - Oxford
PB  - Oxford University Press
M1  - DKFZ-2021-01718
SP  - 2439 - 2454
PY  - 2021
AB  - The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9
KW  - 10-year CVD risk (Other)
KW  - Cardiovascular disease (Other)
KW  - Primary prevention (Other)
KW  - Risk prediction (Other)
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
C6  - pmid:34120177
C2  - pmc:PMC8248998
DO  - DOI:10.1093/eurheartj/ehab309
UR  - https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/170049
ER  -