TY  - JOUR
AU  - Schiborn, Catarina
AU  - Kühn, Tilman
AU  - Mühlenbruch, Kristin
AU  - Kuxhaus, Olga
AU  - Weikert, Cornelia
AU  - Fritsche, Andreas
AU  - Kaaks, Rudolf
AU  - Schulze, Matthias B
TI  - A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population.
JO  - Scientific reports
VL  - 11
IS  - 1
SN  - 2045-2322
CY  - [London]
PB  - Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature
M1  - DKFZ-2021-02060
SP  - 19609
PY  - 2021
AB  - Inclusion of clinical parameters limits the application of most cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction models to clinical settings. We developed and externally validated a non-clinical CVD risk score with a clinical extension and compared the performance to established CVD risk scores. We derived the scores predicting CVD (non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarction and stroke) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort (n = 25,992, cases = 683) using competing risk models and externally validated in EPIC-Heidelberg (n = 23,529, cases = 692). Performance was assessed by C-indices, calibration plots, and expected-to-observed ratios and compared to a non-clinical model, the Pooled Cohort Equation, Framingham CVD Risk Scores (FRS), PROCAM scores, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). Our non-clinical score included age, gender, waist circumference, smoking, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, CVD family history, and dietary parameters. C-indices consistently indicated good discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.786, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.762) comparable to established clinical scores (thereof highest, FRS: EPIC-Potsdam 0.781, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.764). Additional clinical parameters slightly improved discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.796, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.769). Calibration plots indicated very good calibration with minor overestimation in the highest decile of predicted risk. The developed non-clinical 10-year CVD risk score shows comparable discrimination to established clinical scores, allowing assessment of individual CVD risk in physician-independent settings.
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
C6  - pmid:34608230
DO  - DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-99103-4
UR  - https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/172496
ER  -