TY  - JOUR
AU  - Heisser, Thomas
AU  - Hoffmeister, Michael
AU  - Tillmanns, Hanna
AU  - Brenner, Hermann
TI  - Impact of demographic changes and screening colonoscopy on long-term projection of incident colorectal cancer cases in Germany: A modelling study.
JO  - The lancet / Regional health. Europe
VL  - 20
SN  - 2666-7762
CY  - [Amsterdam]
PB  - Elsevier
M1  - DKFZ-2022-01443
SP  - 100451
PY  - 2022
N1  - #EA:C070#LA:C070#LA:C120#
AB  - Demographic aging is expected to increase the number of colorectal cancer (CRC) cases in many countries. Screening for CRC can substantially reduce the disease burden but its use has remained rather limited in Germany. We aimed to quantify the expected impact of demographic aging on the future CRC burden and the potential to reduce that burden by increased use of screening colonoscopy offers in Germany.We obtained sex- and age-specific data on colonoscopy use from AOK, the biggest health insurance provider in Germany, and combined these with the projected demographic development and current CRC incidence rates. We estimated the number of new CRC cases until 2060, assuming screening colonoscopy use to be constant or to increase to between 1·5 and 3 times the current levels.Ten-year screening colonoscopy utilization rates were low (<20
KW  - Adherence (Other)
KW  - Colonoscopy (Other)
KW  - Colorectal cancer (Other)
KW  - Forecasting (Other)
KW  - Screening (Other)
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
C6  - pmid:35799615
C2  - pmc:PMC9253902
DO  - DOI:10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100451
UR  - https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/180638
ER  -