% IMPORTANT: The following is UTF-8 encoded.  This means that in the presence
% of non-ASCII characters, it will not work with BibTeX 0.99 or older.
% Instead, you should use an up-to-date BibTeX implementation like “bibtex8” or
% “biber”.

@ARTICLE{Li:180644,
      author       = {M. Li and L. Zhang and H. Charvat and M. E. Callister and
                      P. Sasieni and E. Christodoulou$^*$ and R. Kaaks$^*$ and M.
                      Johansson and A. L. Carvalho and S. Vaccarella and H. A.
                      Robbins},
      title        = {{T}he influence of postscreening follow-up time and
                      participant characteristics on estimates of overdiagnosis
                      from lung cancer screening trials.},
      journal      = {International journal of cancer},
      volume       = {151},
      number       = {9},
      issn         = {0020-7136},
      address      = {Bognor Regis},
      publisher    = {Wiley-Liss},
      reportid     = {DKFZ-2022-01449},
      pages        = {1491-1501},
      year         = {2022},
      note         = {2022 Nov 1;151(9):1491-1501},
      abstract     = {We aimed to explore the underlying reasons that estimates
                      of overdiagnosis vary across and within low-dose computed
                      tomography (LDCT) lung cancer screening trials. We conducted
                      a systematic review to identify estimates of overdiagnosis
                      from randomised controlled trials of LDCT screening. We then
                      analysed the association of Ps (the excess incidence of lung
                      cancer as a proportion of screen-detected cases) with
                      postscreening follow-up time using a linear random effects
                      meta-regression model. Separately, we analysed annual Ps
                      estimates from the US National Lung Screening Trial (NLST)
                      and German Lung Cancer Screening Intervention Trial (LUSI)
                      using exponential decay models with asymptotes. We conducted
                      stratified analyses to investigate participant
                      characteristics associated with Ps using the extended
                      follow-up data from NLST. Among 12 overdiagnosis estimates
                      from 8 trials, the postscreening follow-up ranged from 3.8
                      to 9.3 years, and Ps ranged from $-27.0\%$ (ITALUNG, 8.3
                      years follow-up) to $67.2\%$ (DLCST, 5.0 years follow-up).
                      Across trials, $39.1\%$ of the variation in Ps was explained
                      by postscreening follow-up time. The annual changes in Ps
                      were $-3.5\%$ and $-3.9\%$ in the NLST and LUSI trials,
                      respectively. Ps was predicted to plateau at $2.2\%$ for
                      NLST and $9.2\%$ for LUSI with hypothetical infinite
                      follow-up. In NLST, Ps increased with age from $-14.9\%$
                      (55-59 years) to $21.7\%$ (70-74 years), and time trends in
                      Ps varied by histological type. The findings suggest that
                      differences in postscreening follow-up time partially
                      explain variation in overdiagnosis estimates across lung
                      cancer screening trials. Estimates of overdiagnosis should
                      be interpreted in the context of postscreening follow-up and
                      population characteristics.},
      keywords     = {lung cancer screening (Other) / overdiagnosis (Other) /
                      randomised controlled trial (Other)},
      cin          = {C020},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-He78)C020-20160331},
      pnm          = {313 - Krebsrisikofaktoren und Prävention (POF4-313)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-313},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:35809038},
      doi          = {10.1002/ijc.34167},
      url          = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/180644},
}