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@ARTICLE{Giardiello:182208,
      author       = {D. Giardiello and M. J. Hooning and M. Hauptmann and R.
                      Keeman and B. A. M. Heemskerk-Gerritsen and H. Becher and C.
                      Blomqvist and S. E. Bojesen and M. K. Bolla and N. J. Camp
                      and K. Czene and P. Devilee and D. M. Eccles and P. A.
                      Fasching and J. D. Figueroa and H. Flyger and M.
                      García-Closas and C. A. Haiman and U. Hamann$^*$ and J. L.
                      Hopper and A. Jakubowska and F. E. Leeuwen and A. Lindblom
                      and J. Lubiński and S. Margolin and M. E. Martinez and H.
                      Nevanlinna and I. Nevelsteen and S. Pelders and P. D. P.
                      Pharoah and S. Siesling and M. C. Southey and A. H. van der
                      Hout and L. P. van Hest and J. Chang-Claude$^*$ and P. Hall
                      and D. F. Easton and E. W. Steyerberg and M. K. Schmidt},
      title        = {{P}redict{CBC}-2.0: a contralateral breast cancer risk
                      prediction model developed and validated in ~ 200,000
                      patients.},
      journal      = {Breast cancer research},
      volume       = {24},
      number       = {1},
      issn         = {1465-5411},
      address      = {London},
      publisher    = {BioMed Central},
      reportid     = {DKFZ-2022-02502},
      pages        = {69},
      year         = {2022},
      abstract     = {Prediction of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk is
                      challenging due to moderate performances of the known risk
                      factors. We aimed to improve our previous risk prediction
                      model (PredictCBC) by updated follow-up and including
                      additional risk factors.We included data from 207,510
                      invasive breast cancer patients participating in 23 studies.
                      In total, 8225 CBC events occurred over a median follow-up
                      of 10.2 years. In addition to the previously included risk
                      factors, PredictCBC-2.0 included CHEK2 c.1100delC, a 313
                      variant polygenic risk score (PRS-313), body mass index
                      (BMI), and parity. Fine and Gray regression was used to fit
                      the model. Calibration and a time-dependent area under the
                      curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years were assessed to determine the
                      performance of the models. Decision curve analysis was
                      performed to evaluate the net benefit of PredictCBC-2.0 and
                      previous PredictCBC models.The discrimination of
                      PredictCBC-2.0 at 10 years was higher than PredictCBC with
                      an AUC of 0.65 $(95\%$ prediction intervals (PI) 0.56-0.74)
                      versus 0.63 $(95\%PI$ 0.54-0.71). PredictCBC-2.0 was well
                      calibrated with an observed/expected ratio at 10 years of
                      0.92 $(95\%PI$ 0.34-2.54). Decision curve analysis for
                      contralateral preventive mastectomy (CPM) showed the
                      potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-2.0 between
                      thresholds of 4 and $12\%$ 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2
                      mutation carriers and non-carriers.Additional genetic
                      information beyond BRCA1/2 germline mutations improved CBC
                      risk prediction and might help tailor clinical
                      decision-making toward CPM or alternative preventive
                      strategies. Identifying patients who benefit from CPM,
                      especially in the general breast cancer population, remains
                      challenging.},
      keywords     = {BCAC (Other) / BRCA1/2 germline mutation (Other) / Breast
                      Cancer Association Consortium (Other) / Breast cancer
                      genetic predisposition (Other) / Clinical decision-making
                      (Other) / Contralateral breast cancer (Other) /
                      Contralateral preventive mastectomy (Other) / Polygenic risk
                      score (Other) / Prediction performance (Other) / Risk
                      prediction (Other)},
      cin          = {B070 / B072 / C020},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-He78)B070-20160331 / I:(DE-He78)B072-20160331 /
                      I:(DE-He78)C020-20160331},
      pnm          = {313 - Krebsrisikofaktoren und Prävention (POF4-313)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-313},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:36271417},
      doi          = {10.1186/s13058-022-01567-3},
      url          = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/182208},
}