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000182410 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1200/JCO.21.01785
000182410 0247_ $$2pmid$$apmid:35700419
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000182410 041__ $$aEnglish
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000182410 1001_ $$00000-0001-6041-6866$$aRobbins, Hilary A$$b0
000182410 245__ $$aAbsolute Risk of Oropharyngeal Cancer After an HPV16-E6 Serology Test and Potential Implications for Screening: Results From the Human Papillomavirus Cancer Cohort Consortium.
000182410 260__ $$aAlexandria, Va.$$bAmerican Society of Clinical Oncology$$c2022
000182410 3367_ $$2DRIVER$$aarticle
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000182410 520__ $$aSeropositivity for the HPV16-E6 oncoprotein is a promising marker for early detection of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative test is unknown.We constructed an OPC risk prediction model that integrates (1) relative odds of OPC for HPV16-E6 serostatus and cigarette smoking from the human papillomavirus (HPV) Cancer Cohort Consortium (HPVC3), (2) US population risk factor data from the National Health Interview Survey, and (3) US sex-specific population rates of OPC and mortality.The nine HPVC3 cohorts included 365 participants with OPC with up to 10 years between blood draw and diagnosis and 5,794 controls. The estimated 10-year OPC risk for HPV16-E6 seropositive males at age 50 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 12.4 to 28.6) and at age 60 years was 27.1% (95% CI, 19.2 to 45.4). Corresponding 5-year risk estimates were 7.3% and 14.4%, respectively. For HPV16-E6 seropositive females, 10-year risk estimates were 3.6% (95% CI, 2.5 to 5.9) at age 50 years and 5.5% (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.2) at age 60 years and 5-year risk estimates were 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 30 years, after a seropositive result at age 50 years, an estimated 49.9% of males and 13.3% of females would develop OPC. By contrast, 10-year risks among HPV16-E6 seronegative people were very low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.25% depending on age, sex, and smoking status.We estimate that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals will develop OPC, with 10-year risks of 17%-27% for males and 4%-6% for females age 50-60 years in the United States. This high level of risk may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance after a positive HPV16-E6 serology test, particularly for males in high-incidence regions. However, an appropriate clinical protocol for surveillance remains to be established.
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000182410 650_7 $$2NLM Chemicals$$aAntibodies, Viral
000182410 650_7 $$2NLM Chemicals$$aOncogene Proteins, Viral
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aMale
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aFemale
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aHumans
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aMiddle Aged
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aPapillomaviridae
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aAlphapapillomavirus
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aHuman papillomavirus 16: genetics
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aPapillomavirus Infections: complications
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aPapillomavirus Infections: diagnosis
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aPapillomavirus Infections: epidemiology
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aAntibodies, Viral
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aEarly Detection of Cancer
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aOropharyngeal Neoplasms: diagnosis
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aOropharyngeal Neoplasms: epidemiology
000182410 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aOncogene Proteins, Viral
000182410 7001_ $$aFerreiro-Iglesias, Aida$$b1
000182410 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)6b4ebb9791b983b5620c0caaf3468e30$$aWaterboer, Tim$$b2$$udkfz
000182410 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)b1326dc42cbbc5f92b10fe5f254f0bc2$$aBrenner, Nicole$$b3$$udkfz
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0002-4100-4855$$aNygard, Mari$$b4
000182410 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)540833b33724d8def638cce2f0b4e187$$aBender, Noemi$$b5$$udkfz
000182410 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)b12aaacaa142dabed85c6d84d00bf0fb$$aSchroeder, Lea$$b6$$udkfz
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0003-0257-2363$$aHildesheim, Allan$$b7
000182410 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)d99bad949ba3ae93859eedae5ac266da$$aPawlita, Michael$$b8$$udkfz
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0002-0575-7948$$aD'Souza, Gypsyamber$$b9
000182410 7001_ $$aVisvanathan, Kala$$b10
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0002-9446-4855$$aLangseth, Hilde$$b11
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0003-2482-244X$$aSchlecht, Nicolas F$$b12
000182410 7001_ $$aTinker, Lesley F$$b13
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0002-6248-5790$$aAgalliu, Ilir$$b14
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0002-5447-4653$$aWassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia$$b15
000182410 7001_ $$aNess-Jensen, Eivind$$b16
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0001-8157-9744$$aHveem, Kristian$$b17
000182410 7001_ $$aGrioni, Sara$$b18
000182410 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)4b2dc91c9d1ac33a1c0e0777d0c1697a$$aKaaks, Rudolf$$b19$$udkfz
000182410 7001_ $$aSánchez, Maria-Jose$$b20
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0003-2237-0128$$aWeiderpass, Elisabete$$b21
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0003-4946-9099$$aGiles, Graham G$$b22
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0001-5764-7268$$aMilne, Roger L$$b23
000182410 7001_ $$aCai, Qiuyin$$b24
000182410 7001_ $$aBlot, William J$$b25
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0003-1226-070X$$aZheng, Wei$$b26
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0002-3834-1535$$aWeinstein, Stephanie J$$b27
000182410 7001_ $$aAlbanes, Demetrius$$b28
000182410 7001_ $$aHuang, Wen-Yi$$b29
000182410 7001_ $$aFreedman, Neal D$$b30
000182410 7001_ $$aKreimer, Aimée R$$b31
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0002-3116-5081$$aJohansson, Mattias$$b32
000182410 7001_ $$00000-0002-0518-8714$$aBrennan, Paul$$b33
000182410 773__ $$0PERI:(DE-600)2005181-5$$a10.1200/JCO.21.01785$$gVol. 40, no. 31, p. 3613 - 3622$$n31$$p3613 - 3622$$tJournal of clinical oncology$$v40$$x0732-183X$$y2022
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