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@ARTICLE{Robbins:182410,
      author       = {H. A. Robbins and A. Ferreiro-Iglesias and T. Waterboer$^*$
                      and N. Brenner$^*$ and M. Nygard and N. Bender$^*$ and L.
                      Schroeder$^*$ and A. Hildesheim and M. Pawlita$^*$ and G.
                      D'Souza and K. Visvanathan and H. Langseth and N. F.
                      Schlecht and L. F. Tinker and I. Agalliu and S.
                      Wassertheil-Smoller and E. Ness-Jensen and K. Hveem and S.
                      Grioni and R. Kaaks$^*$ and M.-J. Sánchez and E. Weiderpass
                      and G. G. Giles and R. L. Milne and Q. Cai and W. J. Blot
                      and W. Zheng and S. J. Weinstein and D. Albanes and W.-Y.
                      Huang and N. D. Freedman and A. R. Kreimer and M. Johansson
                      and P. Brennan},
      title        = {{A}bsolute {R}isk of {O}ropharyngeal {C}ancer {A}fter an
                      {HPV}16-{E}6 {S}erology {T}est and {P}otential
                      {I}mplications for {S}creening: {R}esults {F}rom the {H}uman
                      {P}apillomavirus {C}ancer {C}ohort {C}onsortium.},
      journal      = {Journal of clinical oncology},
      volume       = {40},
      number       = {31},
      issn         = {0732-183X},
      address      = {Alexandria, Va.},
      publisher    = {American Society of Clinical Oncology},
      reportid     = {DKFZ-2022-02631},
      pages        = {3613 - 3622},
      year         = {2022},
      abstract     = {Seropositivity for the HPV16-E6 oncoprotein is a promising
                      marker for early detection of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC),
                      but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative
                      test is unknown.We constructed an OPC risk prediction model
                      that integrates (1) relative odds of OPC for HPV16-E6
                      serostatus and cigarette smoking from the human
                      papillomavirus (HPV) Cancer Cohort Consortium (HPVC3), (2)
                      US population risk factor data from the National Health
                      Interview Survey, and (3) US sex-specific population rates
                      of OPC and mortality.The nine HPVC3 cohorts included 365
                      participants with OPC with up to 10 years between blood draw
                      and diagnosis and 5,794 controls. The estimated 10-year OPC
                      risk for HPV16-E6 seropositive males at age 50 years was
                      $17.4\%$ $(95\%$ CI, 12.4 to 28.6) and at age 60 years was
                      $27.1\%$ $(95\%$ CI, 19.2 to 45.4). Corresponding 5-year
                      risk estimates were $7.3\%$ and $14.4\%,$ respectively. For
                      HPV16-E6 seropositive females, 10-year risk estimates were
                      $3.6\%$ $(95\%$ CI, 2.5 to 5.9) at age 50 years and $5.5\%$
                      $(95\%$ CI, 3.8 to 9.2) at age 60 years and 5-year risk
                      estimates were $1.5\%$ and $2.7\%,$ respectively. Over 30
                      years, after a seropositive result at age 50 years, an
                      estimated $49.9\%$ of males and $13.3\%$ of females would
                      develop OPC. By contrast, 10-year risks among HPV16-E6
                      seronegative people were very low, ranging from $0.01\%$ to
                      $0.25\%$ depending on age, sex, and smoking status.We
                      estimate that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6
                      seropositive individuals will develop OPC, with 10-year
                      risks of $17\%-27\%$ for males and $4\%-6\%$ for females age
                      50-60 years in the United States. This high level of risk
                      may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance after
                      a positive HPV16-E6 serology test, particularly for males in
                      high-incidence regions. However, an appropriate clinical
                      protocol for surveillance remains to be established.},
      keywords     = {Male / Female / Humans / Middle Aged / Papillomaviridae /
                      Alphapapillomavirus / Human papillomavirus 16: genetics /
                      Papillomavirus Infections: complications / Papillomavirus
                      Infections: diagnosis / Papillomavirus Infections:
                      epidemiology / Antibodies, Viral / Early Detection of Cancer
                      / Oropharyngeal Neoplasms: diagnosis / Oropharyngeal
                      Neoplasms: epidemiology / Oncogene Proteins, Viral /
                      Antibodies, Viral (NLM Chemicals) / Oncogene Proteins, Viral
                      (NLM Chemicals)},
      cin          = {F020 / C020},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-He78)F020-20160331 / I:(DE-He78)C020-20160331},
      pnm          = {316 - Infektionen, Entzündung und Krebs (POF4-316)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-316},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:35700419},
      pmc          = {pmc:PMC9622695},
      doi          = {10.1200/JCO.21.01785},
      url          = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/182410},
}