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@ARTICLE{Niedermaier:272830,
      author       = {T. Niedermaier$^*$ and T. Gredner$^*$ and M.
                      Hoffmeister$^*$ and U. Mons$^*$ and H. Brenner$^*$},
      title        = {{I}mpact of {R}educing {I}ntake of {R}ed and {P}rocessed
                      {M}eat on {C}olorectal {C}ancer {I}ncidence in {G}ermany
                      2020 to 2050-{A} {S}imulation {S}tudy.},
      journal      = {Nutrients},
      volume       = {15},
      number       = {4},
      issn         = {2072-6643},
      address      = {Basel},
      publisher    = {MDPI},
      reportid     = {DKFZ-2023-00403},
      pages        = {1020},
      year         = {2023},
      note         = {#EA:C070#LA:C070#LA:C120#},
      abstract     = {According to the International Agency for Research on
                      Cancer (IARC), there is sufficient evidence for the
                      carcinogenicity of processed meat consumption in humans,
                      specifically regarding colorectal cancer (CRC) risk.
                      Evidence for the carcinogenicity of red meat consumption is
                      more limited but points in the same direction.A
                      macro-simulation approach was used to calculate age- and
                      sex-specific potential impact fractions in a 30-year period
                      (2020-2050).We estimated numbers and proportions of future
                      CRC cases preventable under different scenarios of reducing
                      the intake of processed and red meat in the German
                      population.Eliminating processed meat intake could reduce
                      the burden of CRC by approximately 205,000 cases in Germany
                      $(9.6\%)$ in 2020-2050, 2/3 among males (145,000) and 1/3
                      among females (60,000). Without red meat intake,
                      approximately 63,000 CRC cases could be avoided $(2.9\%),$
                      39,000 among males and 24,000 among females. Reductions in
                      the mean consumption of both processed and red meat by one
                      or two servings (each 11 or 22 g) per day would be expected
                      to reduce CRC case numbers by 68,000 $(3.1\%)$ and 140,000
                      $(6.5\%),$ respectively.A reduction in red and processed
                      meat intake might substantially reduce the incidence of CRC
                      in Germany. The means of achieving such a reduction might
                      include price and taxation policies, food labeling, and
                      clearer risk communication aiming to reduce individual
                      intake.},
      keywords     = {colorectal cancer (Other) / policy intervention (Other) /
                      potential impact fraction (Other) / processed meat (Other) /
                      red meat (Other)},
      cin          = {C070 / C120 / M050 / HD01},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-He78)C070-20160331 / I:(DE-He78)C120-20160331 /
                      I:(DE-He78)M050-20160331 / I:(DE-He78)HD01-20160331},
      pnm          = {313 - Krebsrisikofaktoren und Prävention (POF4-313)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-313},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:36839378},
      pmc          = {pmc:PMC9966277},
      doi          = {10.3390/nu15041020},
      url          = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/272830},
}