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000291566 1001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)fae4f3c76bbbd2fc21dd920b46945d42$$aHummel, Manuela$$b0$$eFirst author
000291566 245__ $$aQuantitative Integrative Survival Prediction in Multiple Myeloma Patients Treated With Bortezomib-Based Induction, High-Dose Therapy and Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation.
000291566 260__ $$aAlexandria, VA$$bAmerican Society of Clinical Oncology$$c2024
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000291566 520__ $$aGiven the high heterogeneity in survival for patients with multiple myeloma, it would be clinically useful to quantitatively predict the individual survival instead of attributing patients to two to four risk groups as in current models, for example, revised International Staging System (R-ISS), R2-ISS, or Mayo-2022-score.Our aim was to develop a quantitative prediction tool for individual patient's 3-/5-year overall survival (OS) probability. We integrated established clinical and molecular risk factors into a comprehensive prognostic model and evaluated and validated its risk discrimination capabilities versus R-ISS, R2-ISS, and Mayo-2022-score.A nomogram for estimating OS probabilities was built on the basis of a Cox regression model. It allows one to translate the individual risk profile of a patient into 3-/5-year OS probabilities by attributing points to each prognostic factor and summing up all points. The nomogram was externally validated regarding discrimination and calibration. There was no obvious bias or overfitting of the prognostic index on the validation cohort. Resampling-based and external evaluation showed good calibration. The c-index of the model was similar on the training (0.76) and validation cohort (0.75) and significantly higher than for the R-ISS (P < .001) or R2-ISS (P < .01).In summary, we developed and validated individual quantitative nomogram-based OS prediction. Continuous risk assessment integrating molecular prognostic factors is superior to R-ISS, R2-ISS, or Mayo-2022-score alone.
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000291566 650_7 $$069G8BD63PP$$2NLM Chemicals$$aBortezomib
000291566 650_7 $$2NLM Chemicals$$aAntineoplastic Agents
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aMultiple Myeloma: mortality
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aMultiple Myeloma: therapy
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aMultiple Myeloma: drug therapy
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aHumans
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aBortezomib: therapeutic use
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aMale
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aFemale
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aMiddle Aged
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aTransplantation, Autologous
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aNomograms
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aAged
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aPrognosis
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aHematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aAntineoplastic Agents: therapeutic use
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aInduction Chemotherapy
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aAdult
000291566 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aSurvival Rate
000291566 7001_ $$0P:(DE-He78)743a4a82daab55306a2c88b9f6bf8c2f$$aHielscher, Thomas$$b1$$udkfz
000291566 7001_ $$aEmde-Rajaratnam, Martina$$b2
000291566 7001_ $$00000-0001-7803-0814$$aSalwender, Hans$$b3
000291566 7001_ $$aBeck, Susanne$$b4
000291566 7001_ $$00009-0007-6539-226X$$aScheid, Christof$$b5
000291566 7001_ $$aBertsch, Uta$$b6
000291566 7001_ $$aGoldschmidt, Hartmut$$b7
000291566 7001_ $$aJauch, Anna$$b8
000291566 7001_ $$00000-0002-5717-3207$$aMoreaux, Jérôme$$b9
000291566 7001_ $$aSeckinger, Anja$$b10
000291566 7001_ $$00000-0003-0806-5223$$aHose, Dirk$$b11
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