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@ARTICLE{Bryazka:293937,
author = {D. Bryazka and M. B. Reitsma and Y. H. Abate and A. H. A.
Abd Al Magied and A. Abdelkader and A. Abdollahi and M.
Abdoun and R. S. Abdulkader and R. A. Abeldaño Zuñiga and
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and M. Ajami and M. A. Akkaif and E. Akter and S. Al Awaidy
and S. M. Al Hasan and Y. Al-Ajlouni and Z. Al-Aly and K.
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Miller and G. Minervini and M. Mirghafourvand and E. M.
Mirrakhimov and V. Mishra and S. Misra and P. Mithra and A.
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Mohamed and A. M. Mohammad and S.
Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi and I. Mohammadzadeh and H.
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Mondal and U. Mons and A. Moodi Ghalibaf and M. Moradi and
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M. A. Sarasmita and A. Saravanan and B. Saravi and Y.
Sarikhani and T. Sarkar and G. S. Sarode and S. C. Sarode
and B. Sartorius and B. Sathian and A. Sathyanarayan and M.
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title = {{F}orecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios
on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050:
a systematic analysis for the {G}lobal {B}urden of {D}isease
{S}tudy 2021},
journal = {The lancet / Public health},
volume = {9},
number = {10},
issn = {2468-2667},
address = {London},
publisher = {Elsevier},
reportid = {DKFZ-2024-02004},
pages = {e729 - e744},
year = {2024},
abstract = {Background: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor
for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175
milliondeaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost
(YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking
prevalencehas slowed in recent years for many countries, and
although strategies have recently been proposed to
achievetobacco-free generations, none have been implemented
to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends
insmoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if
additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is
importantfor communicating the effect of potential smoking
policies.Methods: In this analysis, we use the Institute for
Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Future Health Scenarios
platformto forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence
scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life
expectancyat birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each
scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
referencelife table and forecasts of cause-specific
mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario
forecasts what couldoccur if past smoking prevalence and
other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking
Elimination as of 2023(Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies
the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming
zero percentsmoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas
the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050
(Elimination-2050)scenario provides estimates for countries
considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence
to $5\%.$ Together,these scenarios underscore the magnitude
of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if
countries take decisiveaction to eliminate smoking. The
$95\%$ uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on
the 2·5th and 97·5th percentileof draws that were carried
through the multistage computational framework.Findings:
Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to
be $28·5\%$ $(95\%$ UI 27·9–29·1) among malesand
$5·96\%$ (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the
reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by
$25·9\%(25·2–26·6)$ among males, and $30·0\%$
(26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this
scenario, weforecast a cumulative 29·3 billion $(95\%$ UI
26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion
(20·1–24·6) YLLsamong females over this period. Life
expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from
73·6 years $(95\%$ UI72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years
(75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023
scenario, we forecast 2·04 $billion(95\%$ UI 1·90–2·21)
fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference
scenario, and life expectancy atbirth would increase to
77·6 years $(95\%$ UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0
years (78·5–83·1) among females.Under our
Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million
(675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLswould
be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life
expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 $years(95\%$ UI
74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9)
among females.Interpretation: Existing tobacco policies must
be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to
decline asforecast by the reference scenario. In addition,
substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided
byaccelerating the pace of smoking elimination.
Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial
in avoidingadditional smoking-attributable burden in the
coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the
pastthree decades are not lost.},
cin = {C070},
ddc = {610},
cid = {I:(DE-He78)C070-20160331},
pnm = {313 - Krebsrisikofaktoren und Prävention (POF4-313)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-313},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
pubmed = {pmid:39366729},
doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00166-X},
url = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/293937},
}
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