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@ARTICLE{Schwerdtfeger:300807,
author = {T. Schwerdtfeger and L. Brualla$^*$},
title = {{A} {M}onte {C}arlo method for the quantitative analysis of
triage algorithms in mass casualty events.},
journal = {Physics in medicine and biology},
volume = {70},
number = {10},
issn = {0031-9155},
address = {Bristol},
publisher = {IOP Publ.},
reportid = {DKFZ-2025-00927},
pages = {105003},
year = {2025},
abstract = {Objective.In mass casualty scenarios, efficient triage
algorithms are used to prioritize medical care when
resources are outnumbered by victims. This research proposes
a computational approach to quantitatively analyze and
optimize triage algorithms by developing a Monte Carlo code
which is subsequently validated against the few quantitative
data.Approach. The developed Monte Carlo code is used to
simulate several mass casualty events, namely car accidents,
burns, shootings, sinking ships and a human stampede. Four
triage algorithms- modified simple triage and rapid
treatment, primäres Ranking zur initialen Orientierung im
Rettungsdienst, CareFlight, and field triage score (FTS)-are
evaluated using metrics like mortality, overtriage,
undertriage, sensitivity, and specificity.Main
results.Results indicate that, on average, the analyzed
algorithms achieve about $35\%$ accuracy in classifying
critical casualties when compared to a perfect algorithm,
with FTS being the less accurate. However, when all
casualties are considered, algorithm performance improves to
around $63\%$ of a perfect algorithm, except for FTS. The
study identifies an increased probability of false positives
for red categorization due to comorbidities and a higher
tendency for false negatives in casualties with burns or
internal trunk injuries.Significance.Despite variations in
vital sign measurements, triage classification results do
not depend on the measurement uncertainties of the
paramedics. The ethically challenging decision, of
withholding medical care from low-survival probability
victims, leads to a $63\%$ reduction in mortality among
critical casualties. This research establishes a
quantitative method for triage algorithm studies,
highlighting their robustness to measurement uncertainties.},
keywords = {Triage: methods / Mass Casualty Incidents / Monte Carlo
Method / Algorithms / Humans / Monte Carlo (Other) /
disaster (Other) / mass casualty event (Other) / prehospital
(Other) / simulation (Other) / triage (Other)},
cin = {ED01},
ddc = {530},
cid = {I:(DE-He78)ED01-20160331},
pnm = {899 - ohne Topic (POF4-899)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-899},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
pubmed = {pmid:40216003},
doi = {10.1088/1361-6560/adcbfc},
url = {https://inrepo02.dkfz.de/record/300807},
}