Journal Article

DKFZ-2025-00685

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Global Effect of Cardiovascular Risk Factors on Lifetime Estimates.

Consortium, G. C. R. (Collaboration Author) ; Magnussen, C. ; Alegre-Diaz, J. ; Al-Nasser, L. A. ; Amouyel, P. ; Aviles-Santa, L. ; Bakker, S. J. L. ; Ballantyne, C. M. ; Bernabé-Ortiz, A. ; Bobak, M. ; Boffetta, P. ; Brenner, H.DKFZ* ; Brunström, M. ; Can, G. ; Carrillo-Larco, R. M. ; Checkley, W. ; Dallongeville, J. ; De Bacquer, D. ; de Gaetano, G. ; de Lemos, J. A. ; di Carluccio, E. ; Dobson, A. ; Donfrancesco, C. ; Dörr, M. ; d'Orsi, E. ; Drygas, W. ; Dullaart, R. P. F. ; Engström, G. ; Ferrario, M. M. ; Ferrières, J. ; Figtree, G. A. ; Gaye, B. ; Ghayour-Mobarhan, M. ; Goldbourt, U. ; Gonzalez, C. ; Gossling, A. ; Grassi, G. ; Gupta, P. C. ; He, J. ; Hodge, A. M. ; Hozawa, A. ; Hveem, K. ; Iacoviello, L. ; Ikram, M. K. ; Inoue, M. ; Irazola, V. ; Jobe, M. ; Jousilahti, P. ; Kaleebu, P. ; Kavousi, M. ; Kee, F. ; Khalili, D. ; Klotsche, J. ; Koenig, W. ; Kontsevaya, A. ; Kowlessur, S. ; Kuri-Morales, P. ; Kuulasmaa, K. ; Kweon, S.-S. ; Lackner, K. J. ; Landmesser, U. ; Leistner, D. M. ; Leiva Sisnieguez, C. E. ; Leong, D. ; Lind, L. ; Linneberg, A. ; Lorenz, T. ; Lyngbakken, M. N. ; Malekzadeh, R. ; Malyutina, S. ; Mathiesen, E. B. ; McElduff, P. ; Melander, O. ; Metspalu, A. ; Miranda, J. J. ; Moitry, M. ; Mugisha, J. ; Munzinger, J. ; Nalini, M. ; Nambi, V. ; Nilsson, P. M. ; Ninomiya, T. ; Omland, T. ; Ong, S. K. ; Oppermann, K. ; Pajak, A. ; Palmieri, L. ; Panagiotakos, D. ; Park, S. K. ; Pednekar, M. S. ; Perianayagam, A. ; Peters, A. ; Poustchi, H. ; Prabhakaran, D. ; Prentice, A. M. ; Prescott, E. ; Quyyumi, A. ; Risérus, U. ; Sakata, S. ; Salazar, M. ; Salomaa, V. ; Sans, S. ; Sattler, E. L. P. ; Schöttker, B.DKFZ* ; Schutte, A. E. ; Sepanlou, S. G. ; Sharma, S. K. ; Shaw, J. ; Simons, L. A. ; Söderberg, S. ; Tamosiunas, A. ; Tapia-Conyer, R. ; Thorand, B. ; Tunstall-Pedoe, H. ; Tuomilehto, J. ; Twerenbold, R. ; Vanuzzo, D. ; Veronesi, G. ; Wannamethee, S. G. ; Watanabe, M. ; Weimann, J. ; Wild, P. S. ; Yao, Y. ; Zeng, Y. ; Ziegler, A. ; Ojeda, F. M. ; Blankenberg, S.

2025
MMS Waltham, Mass.

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2415879

Abstract: Five risk factors account for approximately 50% of the global burden of cardiovascular disease. How the presence or absence of classic risk factors affects lifetime estimates of cardiovascular disease and death from any cause remains unclear.We harmonized individual-level data from 2,078,948 participants across 133 cohorts, 39 countries, and 6 continents. Lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease and death from any cause was estimated up to 90 years of age according to the presence or absence of arterial hypertension, hyperlipidemia, underweight and overweight or obesity, diabetes, and smoking at 50 years of age. Differences in life span (in terms of additional life-years free of cardiovascular disease or death from any cause) according to the presence or absence of these risk factors were also estimated. Risk-factor trajectories were analyzed to predict lifetime differences according to risk-factor variation.The lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease was 24% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21 to 30) among women and 38% (95% CI, 30 to 45) among men for whom all five risk factors were present. In the comparison between participants with none of the risk factors and those with all the risk factors, the estimated number of additional life-years free of cardiovascular disease was 13.3 (95% CI, 11.2 to 15.7) for women and 10.6 (95% CI, 9.2 to 12.9) for men; the estimated number of additional life-years free of death was 14.5 (95% CI, 9.1 to 15.3) for women and 11.8 (95% CI, 10.1 to 13.6) for men. As compared with no changes in the presence of all risk factors, modification of hypertension at an age of 55 to less than 60 years was associated with the most additional life-years free of cardiovascular disease, and modification of smoking at an age of 55 to less than 60 years was associated with the most additional life-years free of death.The absence of five classic risk factors at 50 years of age was associated with more than a decade greater life expectancy than the presence of all five risk factors, in both sexes. Persons who modified hypertension and smoking in midlife had the most additional life-years free of cardiovascular disease and death from any cause, respectively. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research [DZHK]; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Note: 2025 Jul 10;393(2):125-138

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. C070 Klinische Epidemiologie der Krebsfrüherkennung (C070)

Research Program(s):

1. 313 - Krebsrisikofaktoren und Prävention (POF4-313) (POF4-313)

Appears in the scientific report 2025

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Database coverage:
; BIOSIS Previews ; Biological Abstracts ; Clarivate Analytics Master Journal List ; Current Contents - Clinical Medicine ; Current Contents - Life Sciences ; Ebsco Academic Search ; Essential Science Indicators ; IF >= 90 ; JCR ; SCOPUS ; Science Citation Index Expanded ; Web of Science Core Collection

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